Dependent and Independent Time Series Errors Under Elliptically Countered Models
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We explore the impact of time series behavior on model errors when working under an elliptically contoured distribution. By adopting a time series approach aligned with the realistic dependence between errors under such distributions, this perspective shifts the focus from increasingly complex and challenging correlation analyses to volatility modeling that utilizes a novel likelihood framework based on dependent probabilistic samples. With the introduction of a modified Bayesian Information Criterion, which incorporates a ranking of degrees of evidence of significant differences between the compared models, the critical issue of model selection is reinforced, clarifying the relationships among the most common information criteria and revealing limited relevance among the models based on independent probabilistic samples, when tested on a well-established database. Our approach challenges the traditional hierarchical models commonly used in time series analysis, which assume independent errors. The application of rigorous differentiation criteria under this novel perspective on likelihood, based on dependent probabilistic samples, provides a new viewpoint on likelihood that arises naturally in the context of finance, adding a novel result. We provide new results for criterion selection, evidence invariance, and transitions between volatility models and heuristic methods to calibrate nested or non-nested models via convergence properties in a distribution. © 2025 by the authors.
Palabras clave
ARCH, EGARCH models, Elliptically contoured models, GARCH, Grades of evidence for significant difference, Selection criteria, TGARCH, Time series, Volatility models